Week 6 · College Football

South Florida vs UTSA prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives UTSA a 56% chance to beat South Florida in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#46 American Athletic Conference

South Florida

5% to make the 12

@

#49 American Athletic Conference

UTSA

3% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadUTSA −2.5Model
Projected scoreSouth Florida 25UTSA 27

A coin flip. The model nudges UTSA by a field goal — 56% to win.

Chaos meter87 · TOSS-UP
87/ 100
CalmMayhem

South Florida

44%

to win

UTSA

56%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
South Florida
vs
UTSA
#18Offense · EPA/play#43
#30Defense · EPA/play#58
#38Explosiveness#30
#22Success rate#48
100%Returning production96%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

2 meetings all-time

All square 1–1

Last met 2025 · South Florida 5523 UTSASouth Florida won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What South Florida is hearing

What UTSA is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.