#46 American Athletic Conference

South Florida

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does South Florida win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

10%

SOS

#108

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs FIU84%
W2@ Army49%
W3vs Delaware State97%
W4@ Bowling Green86%
W5vs Temple81%
W6@ UTSA45%
W7vs Kent State95%
W9vs UAB90%
W10@ East Carolina48%
W11vs Memphis62%
W12@ FAU64%
W13vs Tulane59%

Chaos meter33 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to UTSA → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 5%
16-team field: 7%
24-team field: 19%
Win conference: 10%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 5% → 5%

Pre 5%Aug 5%

Up next

vs FIU· W184% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where South Florida finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#29

+11.6 · off #12 / def #62

Talent composite

#61

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#65

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

100%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#12

EPA / play#18
Success rate#22
Explosiveness#38

Defense#62

EPA / play#30
Success rate#28

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

+10

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.