Atlantic Coast Conference · 2026

Updated Aug 30, 2026

Stanford schedule

The TailgateNinjas model projects Stanford to finish 2-9 in 2026, the most likely of any record at 28%, averaging 2.7 wins across 11 rated games. Updated August 29, 2026.

Projected record

2-9

28% likely

Expected wins

2.7

11 rated games

Vegas win total

3.5

market

Model vs market

-0.8

we're lower

Every game

Win probability from our model. Non-FBS opponents aren't rated, so those games show no number.

How the season could end

The chance of each final record, from the per-game probabilities above. Records under 1% are hidden.

  • 2-928%
  • 3-827%
  • 4-717%
  • 1-1016%
  • 5-67%
  • 0-114%
  • 6-52%

Hardest game

at Notre Dame

Week 6 · 1% to win

Easiest game

vs Hawai'i

Week 1 · 60% to win

Swing games

Closest to a coin flip — where the season actually gets decided.

Hawai'i 60%Georgia Tech 32%NC State 31%