Week 1 · College Football

SMU vs Florida State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives SMU a 59% chance to beat Florida State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#23 Atlantic Coast Conference

SMU

18% to make the 12

@

#36 Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State

8% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadSMU −3.5Vegas
Projected scoreSMU 28 — Florida State 24

A coin flip. The model nudges SMU by a field goal — 59% to win.

Chaos meter82 · TOSS-UP
82/ 100
CalmMayhem

SMU

59%

to win

Florida State

41%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
SMU
vs
Florida State
#22Offense · EPA/play#14
#11Defense · EPA/play#63
#10Explosiveness#16
#54Success rate#17
50%Returning production13%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

SMU leads 1–0

Last met 2024 · SMU 42–16 Florida State— SMU won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What SMU is hearing

What Florida State is hearing

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