Week 4 · NFL

Dallas Cowboys vs Houston Texans prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Houston Texans a 57% chance to beat Dallas Cowboys in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#10 NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

49% to make the playoffs

@

#13 AFC South

Houston Texans

68% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadHouston Texans −2.5Vegas
Projected scoreDallas Cowboys 21 — Houston Texans 23

A coin flip. The model nudges Houston Texans by a field goal — 57% to win.

Chaos meter85 · TOSS-UP
85/ 100
CalmMayhem

Dallas Cowboys

43%

to win

Houston Texans

57%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Dallas Cowboys
vs
Houston Texans
#5Offense · EPA/play#21
#32Defense · EPA/play#1
#6Success rate#28

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

7 meetings since 1999

Dallas Cowboys leads 4–3

Last met 2024 · Dallas Cowboys 10–34 Houston Texans— Houston Texans won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Dallas Cowboys is hearing

What Houston Texans is hearing

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