Week 16 · NFL

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Buffalo Bills a 54% chance to beat Denver Broncos in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#5 AFC East

Buffalo Bills

85% to make the playoffs

@

#14 AFC West

Denver Broncos

63% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadBuffalo Bills −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreBuffalo Bills 23 — Denver Broncos 21

A coin flip. The model nudges Buffalo Bills by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter91 · TOSS-UP
91/ 100
CalmMayhem

Buffalo Bills

54%

to win

Denver Broncos

46%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Buffalo Bills
vs
Denver Broncos
#3Offense · EPA/play#10
#13Defense · EPA/play#6
#2Success rate#16

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

12 meetings since 1999

All square 6–6

Last met 2025 · Denver Broncos 33–30 Buffalo Bills— Denver Broncos won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Buffalo Bills is hearing

What Denver Broncos is hearing

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