Week 18 · NFL

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Dallas Cowboys a 57% chance to beat Washington Commanders in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#10 NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

49% to make the playoffs

@

#21 NFC East

Washington Commanders

15% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadDallas Cowboys −2.5Model
Projected scoreDallas Cowboys 23 — Washington Commanders 21

A coin flip. The model nudges Dallas Cowboys by a field goal — 57% to win.

Chaos meter85 · TOSS-UP
85/ 100
CalmMayhem

Dallas Cowboys

57%

to win

Washington Commanders

43%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Dallas Cowboys
vs
Washington Commanders
#5Offense · EPA/play#18
#32Defense · EPA/play#30
#6Success rate#10

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

54 meetings since 1999

Dallas Cowboys leads 38–16

Last met 2025 · Washington Commanders 23–30 Dallas Cowboys— Dallas Cowboys won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Dallas Cowboys is hearing

What Washington Commanders is hearing

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