Week 11 · College Football

Buffalo vs Ball State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Buffalo a 61% chance to beat Ball State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#114 Mid-American Conference

Buffalo

0% to make the 12

@

#136 Mid-American Conference

Ball State

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadBuffalo −4.5Model
Projected scoreBuffalo 28 — Ball State 24

Buffalo is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 61% on the model.

Chaos meter77 · LIVE
77/ 100
CalmMayhem

Buffalo

61%

to win

Ball State

39%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Buffalo
vs
Ball State
#113Offense · EPA/play#133
#48Defense · EPA/play#87
#114Explosiveness#29
#106Success rate#136
66%Returning production8%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

14 meetings all-time

Ball State leads 11–3

Last met 2024 · Buffalo 51–48 Ball State— Buffalo won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Buffalo is hearing

What Ball State is hearing

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