#136 Mid-American Conference
Ball State
Projected 4–8 · 4 proj. wins
Call the season
How many games does Ball State win? The Ninjas project 4.
Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.
Playoff
<1%
Title
<1%
Win conf
1%
SOS
#84
Schedule & outlook
Full schedule + record projection →- W1@ Ohio State<1%
- W2vs Stony Brook71%
- W3@ Liberty11%
- W4@ Kent State40%
- W5vs Toledo23%
- W6@ Northwestern5%
- W7@ Bowling Green31%
- W8vs Sacramento State71%
- W10@ UMass36%
- W11vs Buffalo38%
- W12@ Ohio18%
- W13vs C Michigan29%
Path to the playoff
Playoff odds →- LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
- RISKLose to Ohio State → the margin for error vanishes.
- CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.
Full odds
- Make the 12
- <1%
- 16-team field
- <1%
- 24-team field
- <1%
- Win conference
- 1%
- National title
- <1%
Our playoff odds call · month by month
▲0Last season
2025 · via CFBDWhere Ball State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.
SP+ rating
#132
-23 · off #134 / def #115
Talent composite
#115
247 blue-chip composite
Recruiting class
#119
2025 signing class
Returning prod.
8%
of offensive production
Efficiency
2025 · national rank- EPA / play#133
- Success rate#136
- Explosiveness#29
- EPA / play#87
- Success rate#113
The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.
Offseason moves
2026 portal · via CFBDPortal in
24
3★ avg
Portal out
18
2.9★ avg
Net
+6
in − out
Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.
Rooting guide
Beyond Ball State's own games, here's who to scoreboard-watch — the teams chasing the same playoff spots.
Win the MAC
The rivals between you and the league's bids — root against them.
At-large dogfight
Closest teams to you in the national race — every loss helps.
Rivalries
The all-time series against the teams Ball State keeps playing.
The buzz
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Board strength 33 of 100 · polls say 36, our model says 31 · Updated Aug 17, 2026 · how this is built