#114 Mid-American Conference

Buffalo

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Buffalo win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#92

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs UAlbany85%
W2@ FIU31%
W3@ Penn State5%
W4vs Robert Morris85%
W5vs W Michigan32%
W6@ Toledo26%
W7vs UMass71%
W8vs Bowling Green65%
W10@ Miami (OH)22%
W11@ Ball State62%
W12vs C Michigan48%
W13@ Akron46%

Chaos meter23 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Penn State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: 1%
Win conference: 6%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs UAlbany· W185% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Buffalo finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#95

-7.5 · off #118 / def #70

Talent composite

#112

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#92

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

66%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#118

EPA / play#113
Success rate#106
Explosiveness#114

Defense#70

EPA / play#48
Success rate#38

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.