Week 10 · College Football

Iowa State vs Baylor prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Baylor a 66% chance to beat Iowa State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#62 Big 12 Conference

Iowa State

4% to make the 12

@

#42 Big 12 Conference

Baylor

8% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadBaylor −6.5Model
Projected scoreIowa State 23 — Baylor 29

Baylor is the pick by 6.5, but it's live — 66% on the model.

Chaos meter67 · LIVE
67/ 100
CalmMayhem

Iowa State

34%

to win

Baylor

66%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Iowa State
vs
Baylor
#52Offense · EPA/play#51
#35Defense · EPA/play#83
#89Explosiveness#43
#38Success rate#41
58%Returning production83%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

23 meetings all-time

Baylor leads 12–11

Last met 2024 · Iowa State 43–21 Baylor— Iowa State won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Iowa State is hearing

What Baylor is hearing

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