#62 Big 12 Conference

Iowa State

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Iowa State win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#30

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Southeast Missouri State96%
W2@ Iowa21%
W3vs Bowling Green90%
W4vs Utah32%
W5vs West Virginia60%
W6@ BYU15%
W8@ Arizona25%
W9vs Oklahoma State57%
W10@ Baylor32%
W11vs Cincinnati56%
W12@ UCF46%
W13vs Kansas State35%

Chaos meter36 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to BYU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 4%
16-team field: 7%
24-team field: 14%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 4% → 4%

Pre 4%Aug 4%

Up next

vs Southeast Missouri State· W196% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Iowa State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#33

+9.9 · off #63 / def #25

Talent composite

#71

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#54

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

58%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#63

EPA / play#52
Success rate#38
Explosiveness#89

Defense#25

EPA / play#35
Success rate#42

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-7

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.