#42 Big 12 Conference

Baylor

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Baylor win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#32

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Auburn39%
W2vs Prairie View A&M98%
W3vs Louisiana Tech84%
W4vs Colorado72%
W5@ Arizona State40%
W7vs TCU59%
W8@ Kansas53%
W9@ UCF57%
W10vs Iowa State68%
W11@ BYU21%
W12vs Texas Tech22%
W13@ Houston29%

Chaos meter39 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to BYU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 8%
16-team field: 12%
24-team field: 20%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 8% → 8%

Pre 8%Aug 8%

Up next

vs Auburn· W139% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Baylor finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#71

+1.4 · off #32 / def #110

Talent composite

#35

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#36

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

83%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#32

EPA / play#51
Success rate#41
Explosiveness#43

Defense#110

EPA / play#83
Success rate#99

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-1

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.