Week 9 · College Football

Texas St vs Boise State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Boise State a 73% chance to beat Texas St in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#78 Sun Belt Conference

Texas St

1% to make the 12

@

#44 Mountain West Conference

Boise State

3% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadBoise State −9.5Model
Projected scoreTexas St 21Boise State 31

Boise State is the pick by 9.5, but it's live — 73% on the model.

Chaos meter54 · LIVE
54/ 100
CalmMayhem

Texas St

27%

to win

Boise State

73%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Texas St
vs
Boise State
#10Offense · EPA/play#60
#71Defense · EPA/play#42
#18Explosiveness#36
#29Success rate#86
93%Returning production58%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Texas St is hearing

What Boise State is hearing

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