#44 Mountain West Conference

Boise State

Projected 8–3 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Boise State win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#71

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Oregon5%
W2vs Memphis64%
W3vs South Dakota97%
W4@ W Michigan63%
W5vs Utah State83%
W6@ Fresno State58%
W8@ Washington St67%
W9vs Texas St76%
W10@ Colorado St82%
W11vs Oregon St90%
W12vs San Diego State71%

Chaos meter23 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Oregon → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 3%
16-team field: 7%
24-team field: 19%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 3% → 3%

Pre 3%Aug 3%

Up next

@ Oregon· W15% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Boise State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#64

+3.1 · off #55 / def #60

Talent composite

#81

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#62

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

58%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#55

EPA / play#60
Success rate#86
Explosiveness#36

Defense#60

EPA / play#42
Success rate#8

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-8

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.