Week 7 · College Football

North Carolina vs Duke prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Duke a 61% chance to beat North Carolina in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#83 Atlantic Coast Conference

North Carolina

2% to make the 12

@

#70 Atlantic Coast Conference

Duke

4% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadDuke −4.5Vegas
Projected scoreNorth Carolina 24 — Duke 28

Duke is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 61% on the model.

Chaos meter77 · LIVE
77/ 100
CalmMayhem

North Carolina

39%

to win

Duke

61%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
North Carolina
vs
Duke
#122Offense · EPA/play#25
#64Defense · EPA/play#113
#116Explosiveness#26
#112Success rate#31
16%Returning production18%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

105 meetings all-time

North Carolina leads 63–38–4

Last met 2025 · North Carolina 25–32 Duke— Duke won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What North Carolina is hearing

What Duke is hearing

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