#83 Atlantic Coast Conference

North Carolina

Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does North Carolina win? The Ninjas project 5.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#62

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs TCU34%
W2vs East Tennessee State95%
W3@ Clemson21%
W5vs Notre Dame3%
W6@ Pittsburgh25%
W7@ Duke38%
W8vs Syracuse62%
W9vs Miami9%
W10@ UConn60%
W11vs Louisville35%
W12@ Virginia27%
W13vs NC State43%

Chaos meter27 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Notre Dame → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 2%
16-team field: 4%
24-team field: 7%
Win conference: 1%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 2% → 2%

Pre 2%Aug 2%

Up next

vs TCU· W134% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where North Carolina finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#91

-6.6 · off #123 / def #58

Talent composite

#31

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#41

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

16%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#123

EPA / play#122
Success rate#112
Explosiveness#116

Defense#58

EPA / play#64
Success rate#67

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-12

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.