#70 Atlantic Coast Conference

Duke

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Duke win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#58

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Tulane49%
W2@ Illinois23%
W3vs Stanford74%
W4vs William & Mary96%
W6@ Georgia Tech34%
W7vs North Carolina62%
W8@ Virginia30%
W9vs Boston College75%
W10@ NC State32%
W11@ Miami6%
W12vs Clemson37%
W13@ Wake Forest44%

Chaos meter34 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Miami → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 4%
16-team field: 6%
24-team field: 12%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 4% → 4%

Pre 4%Aug 4%

Up next

vs Tulane· W149% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Duke finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#44

+6.6 · off #19 / def #86

Talent composite

#58

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#30

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

18%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#19

EPA / play#25
Success rate#31
Explosiveness#26

Defense#86

EPA / play#113
Success rate#96

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.