Week 13 · College Football

Florida vs Florida State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Florida a 61% chance to beat Florida State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#20 Southeastern Conference

Florida

18% to make the 12

@

#36 Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State

8% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadFlorida −4.5Vegas
Projected scoreFlorida 28Florida State 24

Florida is the pick by 4.5, but it's live — 61% on the model.

Chaos meter77 · LIVE
77/ 100
CalmMayhem

Florida

61%

to win

Florida State

39%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Florida
vs
Florida State
#87Offense · EPA/play#14
#81Defense · EPA/play#63
#133Explosiveness#16
#62Success rate#17
55%Returning production13%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

70 meetings all-time

Florida leads 39–29–2

Last met 2025 · Florida 4021 Florida StateFlorida won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Florida is hearing

What Florida State is hearing

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