#36 Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Florida State win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#31

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs New Mexico St93%
W1vs SMU48%
W3@ Alabama20%
W4vs Central Arkansas98%
W5vs Virginia61%
W6@ Louisville40%
W7@ Miami10%
W9vs Clemson53%
W10@ Boston College75%
W11@ Pittsburgh44%
W12vs NC State64%
W13vs Florida40%

Chaos meter43 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Miami → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 8%
16-team field: 12%
24-team field: 21%
Win conference: 3%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 8% → 8%

Pre 8%Aug 8%

Up next

vs New Mexico St· W193% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Florida State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#41

+7.2 · off #54 / def #38

Talent composite

#19

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#19

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

13%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#54

EPA / play#14
Success rate#17
Explosiveness#16

Defense#38

EPA / play#63
Success rate#56

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.2★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-21

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.