#23 Atlantic Coast Conference

SMU

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does SMU win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

18%

Title

<1%

Win conf

10%

SOS

#65

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Florida State52%
W2vs UC Davis99%
W3@ Louisville49%
W4vs Missouri St94%
W5vs Boston College89%
W7vs Virginia70%
W8vs California77%
W9@ Syracuse74%
W10vs Virginia Tech80%
W11vs Wake Forest81%
W12@ Notre Dame6%
W13@ Stanford81%

Chaos meter40 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Notre Dame → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 18%
16-team field: 26%
24-team field: 40%
Win conference: 10%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 18% → 18%

Pre 18%Aug 18%

Up next

@ Florida State· W152% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where SMU finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#23

+13.4 · off #22 / def #25

Talent composite

#25

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#31

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

50%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#22

EPA / play#22
Success rate#54
Explosiveness#10

Defense#25

EPA / play#11
Success rate#47

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.2★ avg

Portal out

2.9★ avg

Net

-10

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.