Week 13 · College Football

Louisville vs Kentucky prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Louisville a 54% chance to beat Kentucky in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#39 Atlantic Coast Conference

Louisville

13% to make the 12

#58 Southeastern Conference

Kentucky

4% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadLouisville −1.5Model

Projected scoreLouisville 27 — Kentucky 25

A coin flip. The model nudges Louisville by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP

92/ 100

CalmMayhem

Louisville

54%

to win

Kentucky

46%

to win

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2025 efficiency · ranks

Louisville

Kentucky

#82Offense · EPA/play#109

#21Defense · EPA/play#79

#97Explosiveness#127

#37Success rate#59

46%Returning production27%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

34 meetings all-time

All square 17–17

Last met 2025 · Louisville 41–0 Kentucky— Louisville won

via Google News

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