#39 Atlantic Coast Conference

Louisville

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Louisville win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

13%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#83

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Ole Miss32%
W2vs Villanova98%
W3vs SMU51%
W4vs Wake Forest76%
W5@ NC State50%
W6vs Florida State60%
W7@ Syracuse68%
W9vs Stanford86%
W10@ Georgia Tech52%
W11@ North Carolina65%
W12vs Pittsburgh62%
W13@ Kentucky55%

Chaos meter58 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Ole Miss → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 13%
16-team field: 19%
24-team field: 29%
Win conference: 6%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 13% → 13%

Pre 13%Aug 13%

Up next

vs Ole Miss· W132% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Louisville finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#25

+12.4 · off #39 / def #29

Talent composite

#50

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#68

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

46%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#39

EPA / play#82
Success rate#37
Explosiveness#97

Defense#29

EPA / play#21
Success rate#16

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.1★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

-6

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.