Week 3 · College Football

Ball State vs Liberty prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Liberty a 88% chance to beat Ball State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#136 Mid-American Conference

Ball State

0% to make the 12

@

#77 Conference USA

Liberty

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadLiberty −18.5Model
Projected scoreBall State 17 — Liberty 35

Liberty is a heavy favorite — 88% in the model. Upset alert if it's close.

Chaos meter23 · CHALK
23/ 100
CalmMayhem

Ball State

12%

to win

Liberty

88%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Ball State
vs
Liberty
#133Offense · EPA/play#68
#87Defense · EPA/play#106
#29Explosiveness#92
#136Success rate#52
8%Returning production100%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

Liberty leads 1–0

Last met 2010 · Ball State 23–27 Liberty— Liberty won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Ball State is hearing

What Liberty is hearing

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