#77 Conference USA

Liberty

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Liberty win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

22%

SOS

#135

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ James Madison17%
W2vs Gardner-Webb94%
W3vs Ball State89%
W4@ Coastal Carolina63%
W5@ Delaware59%
W6vs Sam Houston87%
W8@ Kennesaw St55%
W9vs FIU70%
W10@ New Mexico St70%
W11vs Middle Tennessee87%
W12vs Western Kentucky65%
W13@ Missouri St64%

Chaos meter28 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to James Madison → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 3%
24-team field: 5%
Win conference: 22%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ James Madison· W117% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Liberty finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#102

-9 · off #86 / def #103

Talent composite

#84

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#86

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

100%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#86

EPA / play#68
Success rate#52
Explosiveness#92

Defense#103

EPA / play#106
Success rate#68

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.