Week 3 · College Football

SMU vs Louisville prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Louisville a 54% chance to beat SMU in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#23 Atlantic Coast Conference

SMU

18% to make the 12

@

#39 Atlantic Coast Conference

Louisville

13% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadLouisville −1.5Vegas
Projected scoreSMU 25 — Louisville 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Louisville by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP
92/ 100
CalmMayhem

SMU

46%

to win

Louisville

54%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
SMU
vs
Louisville
#22Offense · EPA/play#82
#11Defense · EPA/play#21
#10Explosiveness#97
#54Success rate#37
50%Returning production46%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

4 meetings all-time

SMU leads 4–0

Last met 2025 · SMU 38–6 Louisville— SMU won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What SMU is hearing

What Louisville is hearing

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