Week 7 · College Football

Florida State vs Miami prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Miami a 86% chance to beat Florida State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#36 Atlantic Coast Conference

Florida State

8% to make the 12

@

#6 Atlantic Coast Conference

Miami

57% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadMiami −16.5Vegas
Projected scoreFlorida State 18Miami 34

Miami should handle it: 16.5-point edge, 86% to win.

Chaos meter28 · LEAN
28/ 100
CalmMayhem

Florida State

14%

to win

Miami

86%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Florida State
vs
Miami
#14Offense · EPA/play#32
#63Defense · EPA/play#12
#16Explosiveness#120
#17Success rate#20
13%Returning production13%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

70 meetings all-time

Miami leads 37–33

Last met 2025 · Florida State 2228 MiamiMiami won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Florida State is hearing

What Miami is hearing

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