Week 1 · College Football

Toledo vs Michigan State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Michigan State a 73% chance to beat Toledo in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#92 Mid-American Conference

Toledo

1% to make the 12

@

#61 Big Ten Conference

Michigan State

2% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadMichigan State −9.5Vegas
Projected scoreToledo 21 — Michigan State 31

Michigan State is the pick by 9.5, but it's live — 73% on the model.

Chaos meter54 · LIVE
54/ 100
CalmMayhem

Toledo

27%

to win

Michigan State

73%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Toledo
vs
Michigan State
#44Offense · EPA/play#90
#1Defense · EPA/play#102
#87Explosiveness#99
#43Success rate#72
69%Returning production69%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

Michigan State leads 1–0

Last met 1925 · Michigan State 58–0 Toledo— Michigan State won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Toledo is hearing

What Michigan State is hearing

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