#92 Mid-American Conference

Toledo

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Toledo win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

14%

SOS

#130

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Michigan State26%
W2vs Central Connecticut92%
W3vs Temple59%
W4vs San Diego State43%
W5@ Ball State77%
W6vs Buffalo74%
W7@ E Michigan60%
W8vs W Michigan50%
W10@ Sacramento State86%
W11vs UMass83%
W12vs Bowling Green80%
W13@ Ohio51%

Chaos meter21 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Michigan State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 3%
24-team field: 6%
Win conference: 14%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ Michigan State· W126% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Toledo finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#48

+6 · off #75 / def #21

Talent composite

#75

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#73

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

69%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#75

EPA / play#44
Success rate#43
Explosiveness#87

Defense#21

EPA / play#1
Success rate#4

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-5

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.