Week 7 · College Football

Penn State vs Michigan prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Michigan a 66% chance to beat Penn State in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#16 Big Ten Conference

Penn State

25% to make the 12

@

#7 Big Ten Conference

Michigan

31% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadMichigan −6.5Vegas
Projected scorePenn State 23 — Michigan 29

Michigan is the pick by 6.5, but it's live — 66% on the model.

Chaos meter67 · LIVE
67/ 100
CalmMayhem

Penn State

34%

to win

Michigan

66%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Penn State
vs
Michigan
#30Offense · EPA/play#47
#46Defense · EPA/play#52
#101Explosiveness#129
#25Success rate#33
56%Returning production40%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

27 meetings all-time

Michigan leads 17–10

Last met 2023 · Penn State 15–24 Michigan— Michigan won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Penn State is hearing

What Michigan is hearing

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