#7 Big Ten Conference

Michigan

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Michigan win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

31%

Title

Win conf

SOS

#17

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs W Michigan93%
W2vs Oklahoma66%
W3vs UTEP99%
W4vs Iowa77%
W5@ Minnesota80%
W7vs Penn State73%
W8vs Indiana36%
W9@ Rutgers87%
W10vs Michigan State90%
W11@ Oregon20%
W12vs UCLA85%
W13@ Ohio State23%

Chaos meter55 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Oregon → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 31%
16-team field: 41%
24-team field: 55%
Win conference: 7%
National title: 3%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 31% → 31%

Pre 31%Aug 31%

Up next

vs W Michigan· W193% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Michigan finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#25

+12.4 · off #48 / def #15

Talent composite

#11

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

40%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#48

EPA / play#47
Success rate#33
Explosiveness#129

Defense#15

EPA / play#52
Success rate#70

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3.2★ avg

Net

-16

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.