Week 3 · College Football

Nevada vs Middle Tennessee prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Middle Tennessee a 54% chance to beat Nevada in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#127 Mountain West Conference

Nevada

0% to make the 12

@

#132 Conference USA

Middle Tennessee

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadMiddle Tennessee −1.5Model
Projected scoreNevada 25 — Middle Tennessee 27

A coin flip. The model nudges Middle Tennessee by a field goal — 54% to win.

Chaos meter92 · TOSS-UP
92/ 100
CalmMayhem

Nevada

46%

to win

Middle Tennessee

54%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Nevada
vs
Middle Tennessee
#127Offense · EPA/play#85
#91Defense · EPA/play#111
#91Explosiveness#79
#120Success rate#70
66%Returning production99%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

Middle Tennessee leads 1–0

Last met 2025 · Nevada 13–14 Middle Tennessee— Middle Tennessee won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Nevada is hearing

What Middle Tennessee is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.