#132 Conference USA

Middle Tennessee

Projected 4–8 · 4 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Middle Tennessee win? The Ninjas project 4.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

<1%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#126

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Murray State75%
W2@ Marshall11%
W3vs Nevada54%
W4@ Jax State18%
W5@ Kansas7%
W7vs Delaware36%
W8@ FIU19%
W9vs Kennesaw St31%
W10vs Western Kentucky27%
W11@ Liberty13%
W12@ Sam Houston40%
W13vs New Mexico St46%

Chaos meter19 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Kansas → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: <1%
16-team field: <1%
24-team field: <1%
Win conference: 2%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 0% → 0%

Pre 0%Aug 0%

Up next

vs Murray State· W175% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Middle Tennessee finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#127

-16 · off #110 / def #128

Talent composite

#110

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#98

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

99%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#110

EPA / play#85
Success rate#70
Explosiveness#79

Defense#128

EPA / play#111
Success rate#105

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

2.9★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.