Week 10 · College Football

Duke vs NC State prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives NC State a 66% chance to beat Duke in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#70 Atlantic Coast Conference

Duke

4% to make the 12

@

#51 Atlantic Coast Conference

NC State

11% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadNC State −6.5Model
Projected scoreDuke 23NC State 29

NC State is the pick by 6.5, but it's live — 66% on the model.

Chaos meter67 · LIVE
67/ 100
CalmMayhem

Duke

34%

to win

NC State

66%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Duke
vs
NC State
#25Offense · EPA/play#27
#113Defense · EPA/play#92
#26Explosiveness#9
#31Success rate#67
18%Returning production95%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

86 meetings all-time

Duke leads 44–37–5

Last met 2025 · Duke 4533 NC StateDuke won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Duke is hearing

What NC State is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.