#51 Atlantic Coast Conference

NC State

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does NC State win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

11%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#101

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ Virginia40%
W2vs Richmond97%
W3@ Vanderbilt41%
W4vs Appalachian State85%
W5vs Louisville50%
W6vs Wake Forest69%
W8@ Stanford69%
W9vs California63%
W10vs Duke68%
W11vs Syracuse74%
W12@ Florida State36%
W13@ North Carolina57%

Chaos meter55 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Florida State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 11%
16-team field: 16%
24-team field: 25%
Win conference: 5%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 11% → 11%

Pre 11%Aug 11%

Up next

@ Virginia· W140% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where NC State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#55

+4.8 · off #45 / def #64

Talent composite

#45

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#34

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

95%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#45

EPA / play#27
Success rate#67
Explosiveness#9

Defense#64

EPA / play#92
Success rate#49

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.3★ avg

Net

-2

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.