Week 9 · College Football

Jax State vs New Mexico St prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Jax State a 59% chance to beat New Mexico St in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#101 Conference USA

Jax State

1% to make the 12

@

#124 Conference USA

New Mexico St

0% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadJax State −3.5Model
Projected scoreJax State 28 — New Mexico St 24

A coin flip. The model nudges Jax State by a field goal — 59% to win.

Chaos meter82 · TOSS-UP
82/ 100
CalmMayhem

Jax State

59%

to win

New Mexico St

41%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Jax State
vs
New Mexico St
#53Offense · EPA/play#128
#70Defense · EPA/play#41
#57Explosiveness#58
#47Success rate#124
84%Returning production56%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Jax State is hearing

What New Mexico St is hearing

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