#101 Conference USA

Jax State

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Jax State win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

13%

SOS

#136

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1@ North Dakota State84%
W1vs Eastern Kentucky91%
W2@ Ohio47%
W3vs GA Southern63%
W4vs Middle Tennessee82%
W6@ Kennesaw St45%
W7vs FIU61%
W9@ New Mexico St61%
W10vs Sam Houston81%
W11@ Western Kentucky40%
W12vs Missouri St70%
W13@ Delaware49%

Chaos meter31 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Western Kentucky → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 2%
24-team field: 4%
Win conference: 13%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

@ North Dakota State· W184% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Jax State finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#92

-6.7 · off #67 / def #102

Talent composite

#111

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#110

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

84%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#67

EPA / play#53
Success rate#47
Explosiveness#57

Defense#102

EPA / play#70
Success rate#79

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.