Week 1 · NFL

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Kansas City Chiefs a 60% chance to beat Denver Broncos in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#14 AFC West

Denver Broncos

63% to make the playoffs

@

#8 AFC West

Kansas City Chiefs

80% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadKansas City Chiefs −3.5Vegas
Projected scoreDenver Broncos 20 — Kansas City Chiefs 24

A coin flip. The model nudges Kansas City Chiefs by a field goal — 60% to win.

Chaos meter80 · TOSS-UP
80/ 100
CalmMayhem

Denver Broncos

40%

to win

Kansas City Chiefs

60%

to win

Who wins?

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Denver Broncos
vs
Kansas City Chiefs
#10Offense · EPA/play#11
#6Defense · EPA/play#12
#16Success rate#14

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

54 meetings since 1999

Kansas City Chiefs leads 30–24

Last met 2025 · Kansas City Chiefs 13–20 Denver Broncos— Denver Broncos won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Denver Broncos is hearing

What Kansas City Chiefs is hearing

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