Week 11 · NFL

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Houston Texans a 68% chance to beat Indianapolis Colts in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#24 AFC South

Indianapolis Colts

23% to make the playoffs

@

#13 AFC South

Houston Texans

68% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadHouston Texans −6.5Model
Projected scoreIndianapolis Colts 19 — Houston Texans 25

Houston Texans is the pick by 6.5, but it's live — 68% on the model.

Chaos meter63 · LIVE
63/ 100
CalmMayhem

Indianapolis Colts

32%

to win

Houston Texans

68%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Indianapolis Colts
vs
Houston Texans
#9Offense · EPA/play#21
#16Defense · EPA/play#1
#8Success rate#28

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

49 meetings since 1999

Indianapolis Colts leads 33–15–1

Last met 2025 · Houston Texans 38–30 Indianapolis Colts— Houston Texans won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Indianapolis Colts is hearing

What Houston Texans is hearing

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