Week 18 · NFL

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives New England Patriots a 82% chance to beat Miami Dolphins in this NFL matchup. Updated August 4, 2026.

#32 AFC East

Miami Dolphins

1% to make the playoffs

@

#15 AFC East

New England Patriots

63% to make the playoffs

The model's read

SpreadNew England Patriots −12.5Model
Projected scoreMiami Dolphins 16 — New England Patriots 28

New England Patriots should handle it: 12.5-point edge, 82% to win.

Chaos meter35 · LEAN
35/ 100
CalmMayhem

Miami Dolphins

18%

to win

New England Patriots

82%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Miami Dolphins
vs
New England Patriots
#22Offense · EPA/play#1
#26Defense · EPA/play#11
#27Success rate#3

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

54 meetings since 1999

New England Patriots leads 29–25

Last met 2025 · New England Patriots 38–10 Miami Dolphins— New England Patriots won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Miami Dolphins is hearing

What New England Patriots is hearing

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