Week 7 · College Football

Virginia vs SMU prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives SMU a 69% chance to beat Virginia in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#43 Atlantic Coast Conference

Virginia

11% to make the 12

@

#23 Atlantic Coast Conference

SMU

18% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadSMU −7.5Model
Projected scoreVirginia 22 — SMU 30

SMU is the pick by 7.5, but it's live — 69% on the model.

Chaos meter63 · LIVE
63/ 100
CalmMayhem

Virginia

31%

to win

SMU

69%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Virginia
vs
SMU
#61Offense · EPA/play#22
#23Defense · EPA/play#11
#46Explosiveness#10
#80Success rate#54
28%Returning production50%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

1 meeting all-time

SMU leads 1–0

Last met 2024 · Virginia 7–33 SMU— SMU won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Virginia is hearing

What SMU is hearing

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