#43 Atlantic Coast Conference

Virginia

Projected 8–4 · 8 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Virginia win? The Ninjas project 8.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

11%

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#70

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs NC State60%
W2vs Norfolk State98%
W3vs West Virginia63%
W4vs Delaware88%
W5@ Florida State39%
W6vs Syracuse76%
W7@ SMU30%
W8vs Duke70%
W9@ Wake Forest57%
W11vs California66%
W12vs North Carolina73%
W13@ Virginia Tech55%

Chaos meter48 · SIMMERING

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to SMU → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 11%
16-team field: 17%
24-team field: 27%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 11% → 11%

Pre 11%Aug 11%

Up next

vs NC State· W160% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Virginia finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#31

+11.1 · off #56 / def #19

Talent composite

#62

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#58

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

28%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#56

EPA / play#61
Success rate#80
Explosiveness#46

Defense#19

EPA / play#23
Success rate#18

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3.1★ avg

Net

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.