Week 11 · College Football

Troy vs South Alabama prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives South Alabama a 51% chance to beat Troy in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#88 Sun Belt Conference

Troy

1% to make the 12

@

#106 Sun Belt Conference

South Alabama

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadSouth Alabama −0.5Model
Projected scoreTroy 26 — South Alabama 26

A coin flip. The model nudges South Alabama by a field goal — 51% to win.

Chaos meter97 · TOSS-UP
97/ 100
CalmMayhem

Troy

49%

to win

South Alabama

51%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Troy
vs
South Alabama
#114Offense · EPA/play#75
#51Defense · EPA/play#121
#40Explosiveness#100
#117Success rate#76
33%Returning production25%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

14 meetings all-time

Troy leads 10–4

Last met 2025 · Troy 31–24 South Alabama— Troy won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Troy is hearing

What South Alabama is hearing

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