#106 Sun Belt Conference

South Alabama

Projected 6–6 · 6 proj. wins

Playoff:OUT

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does South Alabama win? The Ninjas project 6.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

Title

<1%

Win conf

SOS

#113

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs SE Louisiana90%
W2@ Tulane16%
W3vs Ohio59%
W4@ Kentucky17%
W5vs UL Monroe76%
W6@ Arkansas St46%
W8@ Marshall27%
W9vs Louisiana Tech53%
W10@ Louisiana33%
W11vs Troy51%
W12@ Southern Miss47%
W13vs Appalachian State58%

Chaos meter27 · CALM

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Tulane → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.

Full odds

Make the 12: 1%
16-team field: 1%
24-team field: 2%
Win conference: 4%
National title: <1%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 1% → 1%

Pre 1%Aug 1%

Up next

vs SE Louisiana· W190% WIN

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where South Alabama finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#114

-12.7 · off #82 / def #125

Talent composite

#102

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

#118

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

25%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#82

EPA / play#75
Success rate#76
Explosiveness#100

Defense#125

EPA / play#121
Success rate#95

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3★ avg

Portal out

3★ avg

Net

-18

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.