Week 7 · College Football

Florida vs Texas prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Texas a 79% chance to beat Florida in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#20 Southeastern Conference

Florida

18% to make the 12

@

#5 Southeastern Conference

Texas

48% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadTexas −12.5Model
Projected scoreFlorida 20Texas 32

Texas should handle it: 12.5-point edge, 79% to win.

Chaos meter42 · LEAN
42/ 100
CalmMayhem

Florida

21%

to win

Texas

79%

to win

Who wins?

Be the first

Tap a team to call it — then see if the crowd agrees with the model.

Think you know better?

Pick this game against the spread

Make your pick →

Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Florida
vs
Texas
#87Offense · EPA/play#57
#81Defense · EPA/play#40
#133Explosiveness#13
#62Success rate#94
55%Returning production28%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

5 meetings all-time

Texas leads 3–1–1

Last met 2025 · Florida 2921 TexasFlorida won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Florida is hearing

What Texas is hearing

Get The Drop

One email on Tuesdays: the week's biggest swings, and a straight accounting of the calls we missed.

No spam, no selling your address. One click to leave.