#5 Southeastern Conference

Texas

Projected 9–3 · 9 proj. wins

Playoff:IN

Updated Aug 30, 2026 · model record 83% on 6 graded calls →

Call the season

How many games does Texas win? The Ninjas project 9.

Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.

Playoff

48%

Title

Win conf

21%

SOS

Schedule & outlook

Full schedule + record projection →

W1vs Texas St96%
W2vs Ohio State51%
W3vs UTSA93%
W4@ Tennessee70%
W6vs Oklahoma72%
W7vs Florida81%
W8vs Ole Miss80%
W9vs Mississippi St94%
W10@ Missouri77%
W11@ LSU61%
W12vs Arkansas92%
W13@ Texas A&M58%

Chaos meter66 · HEATING UP

CalmMayhem

Path to the playoff

Playoff odds →

LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
RISKLose to Ohio State → the margin for error vanishes.
CHAOSTwo losses → now you'd need chaos elsewhere.

Full odds

Make the 12: 48%
16-team field: 57%
24-team field: 71%
Win conference: 21%
National title: 6%

Our playoff odds call · month by month

▲0

Pre 48% → 48%

Pre 48%Aug 48%

Up next

vs Texas St· W196% WIN

Matchup preview & buzz →

Last season

2025 · via CFBD

Where Texas finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.

SP+ rating

#17

+16.2 · off #30 / def #18

Talent composite

247 blue-chip composite

Recruiting class

2025 signing class

Returning prod.

28%

of offensive production

Efficiency

2025 · national rank

Offense#30

EPA / play#57
Success rate#94
Explosiveness#13

Defense#18

EPA / play#40
Success rate#43

The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.

Offseason moves

2026 portal · via CFBD

Portal in

3.3★ avg

Portal out

3.3★ avg

Net

-6

in − out

Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.