Week 6 · College Football

Buffalo vs Toledo prediction

The TailgateNinjas model gives Toledo a 73% chance to beat Buffalo in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.

#114 Mid-American Conference

Buffalo

0% to make the 12

@

#92 Mid-American Conference

Toledo

1% to make the 12

The model's read

SpreadToledo −9.5Model
Projected scoreBuffalo 21 — Toledo 31

Toledo is the pick by 9.5, but it's live — 73% on the model.

Chaos meter54 · LIVE
54/ 100
CalmMayhem

Buffalo

27%

to win

Toledo

73%

to win

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Tale of the tape

2025 efficiency · ranks
Buffalo
vs
Toledo
#113Offense · EPA/play#44
#48Defense · EPA/play#1
#114Explosiveness#87
#106Success rate#43
66%Returning production69%

National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.

Series history

11 meetings all-time

Toledo leads 6–5

Last met 2024 · Buffalo 30–15 Toledo— Buffalo won

Both sidelines

via Google News

What Buffalo is hearing

What Toledo is hearing

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