Week 11 · College Football
UMass vs Toledo prediction
The TailgateNinjas model gives Toledo a 81% chance to beat UMass in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.
#130 Mid-American Conference
UMass
0% to make the 12
@
#92 Mid-American Conference
Toledo
1% to make the 12
The model's read
SpreadToledo −13.5Model
Projected scoreUMass 19 — Toledo 33
Toledo should handle it: 13.5-point edge, 81% to win.
Chaos meter38 · LEAN
38/ 100
CalmMayhem
UMass
19%
to win
Toledo
81%
to win
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Tale of the tape
2025 efficiency · ranksUMassToledo#136Offense · EPA/play#44
#128Defense · EPA/play#1
#108Explosiveness#87
#134Success rate#43
76%Returning production69%
National ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.
Both sidelines
via Google NewsWhat UMass is hearing
What Toledo is hearing
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