#130 Mid-American Conference
UMass
Projected 5–7 · 5 proj. wins
Call the season
How many games does UMass win? The Ninjas project 5.
Tap a number to call it — then see how you stack up against the Ninjas.
Playoff
<1%
Title
<1%
Win conf
2%
SOS
#133
Schedule & outlook
Full schedule + record projection →- W1@ Rutgers12%
- W2vs Sacred Heart76%
- W3vs Stonehill76%
- W4@ Sacramento State63%
- W5vs E Michigan44%
- W6vs Miami (OH)24%
- W7@ Buffalo29%
- W8@ UConn19%
- W10vs Ball State64%
- W11@ Toledo17%
- W12vs Akron49%
- W13@ Bowling Green36%
Path to the playoff
Playoff odds →- LOCKWin out → in the field, no committee debate.
- RISKLose to Rutgers → the margin for error vanishes.
- CHAOSRun the table + upsets → the only way the door opens.
Full odds
- Make the 12
- <1%
- 16-team field
- <1%
- 24-team field
- 1%
- Win conference
- 2%
- National title
- <1%
Our playoff odds call · month by month
▲0Last season
2025 · via CFBDWhere UMass finished a year ago — the foundation the 2026 outlook is built on.
SP+ rating
#136
-36.6 · off #136 / def #136
Talent composite
#118
247 blue-chip composite
Recruiting class
#145
2025 signing class
Returning prod.
76%
of offensive production
Efficiency
2025 · national rank- EPA / play#136
- Success rate#134
- Explosiveness#108
- EPA / play#128
- Success rate#131
The big number is opponent-adjusted SP+ offense/defense; the splits underneath are per-play efficiency — the same signals that feed the 2026 model. Lower rank is better.
Offseason moves
2026 portal · via CFBDPortal in
21
3.1★ avg
Portal out
19
3.1★ avg
Net
+2
in − out
Scholarship players in and out of the transfer portal for 2026, with average recruiting stars — a quick read on whether the roster got deeper or thinner. Star quality matters as much as the count.
Rooting guide
Beyond UMass's own games, here's who to scoreboard-watch — the teams chasing the same playoff spots.
Win the MAC
The rivals between you and the league's bids — root against them.
At-large dogfight
Closest teams to you in the national race — every loss helps.
Rivalries
The all-time series against the teams UMass keeps playing.
The buzz
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Board strength 34 of 100 · polls say 35, our model says 33 · Updated Aug 17, 2026 · how this is built