Week 4 · College Football
San Diego State vs Toledo prediction
The TailgateNinjas model gives San Diego State a 56% chance to beat Toledo in this College Football matchup. Updated August 29, 2026.
#75 Mountain West Conference
San Diego State
2% to make the 12
#92 Mid-American Conference
Toledo
1% to make the 12
The model's read
A coin flip. The model nudges San Diego State by a field goal — 56% to win.
San Diego State
56%
to win
Toledo
44%
to win
Who wins?
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Tale of the tape
2025 efficiency · ranksSan Diego StateToledoNational ranks from last season (1 = best). The 2026 outlook builds on this.
Series history
1 meeting all-timeSan Diego State leads 1–0
Last met 2022 · San Diego State 17–14 Toledo— San Diego State won
Both sidelines
via Google NewsWhat San Diego State is hearing
What Toledo is hearing
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